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Thursday, October 18, 2012

{allcanada} NHL draft crop is one of the deepest in a decade

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We're just a few weeks into the Canadian Hockey League season and U.S. high school and college play haven't even begun yet, but already there have been some pretty significant developments that are affecting the top end of the draft.

Unlike last season, we're pleased to report that the early season surprises have been mostly positive rather than negative, and we are loving the depth we're seeing. In looking over our rankings and comparing them to last year's list, we see a number of players in the late teens and even into the early twenties who would have been serious considerations for the top 10 overall on our 2012 draft board.

We're thinking specifically about guys like Darnell Nurse, Curtis Lazar, Ryan Kujawinski and Rinat Valiev. Each has at least one standout trait that would have placed them in with the other standouts at their positions last year, but are outshone by brighter lights this time around.

And further up the list, the prospects who occupy the Nos. 3-6 positions this year — Sean Monahan, Rasmus Ristolainen, Elias Lindholm, and Aleksander Barkov — would all have been in serious contention for the No. 2 spot last year. We would argue that Ristolainen has a higher upside than Ryan Murray (last year's No. 2 overall), and the three forwards all have fewer question marks than Alex Galchenyuk (No. 3).

Even the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, which has mostly been a barren wasteland for top-end prospects in recent years, has a wealth of homegrown talent among the '95 draft crop, with as many as seven to eight kids who could be legitimate threats to crack the first round. In particular, big power wingers like William Carrier and Anthony Mantha have bolted off the starting line like they were shot out of a cannon, and gi-normous center Frederik Gauthier has been an absolute revelation.

So all in all, we see this draft shaping up as one of the deeper classes of the past decade, with skill and quality still available deep into the second round. And surely that has to be a welcome sight for NHL talent hounds depressed by the absence of hockey in their own buildings.

No.
Player
Pos.
Ht., wt.
Shoots
Date of birth
Team
1
Seth Jones
D
6-3, 208
Right
Oct. 3, 1994
Portland
2
Nathan MacKinnon
C
5-11, 179
Right
Sept. 1, 1995
Halifax
3
Sean Monahan
C
6-2, 193
Left
Oct. 12, 1994
Ottawa
4
Rasmus Ristolainen
D
6-3, 196
Right
Oct. 27, 1994
TPS Turku
5
Elias Lindholm
C
6-0, 181
Right
Dec. 2, 1994
Brynas
6
Aleksandr Barkov
C
6-2, 207
Left
Sept. 2, 1995
Tappara
7
Ryan Pulock
D
6-1, 201
Right
Oct. 6, 1994
Brandon
8
Jonathan Drouin
LW
5-11, 176
Left
March 27, 1995
Halifax
9
Tyler Hill
LW
6-6, 225
Left
April 13, 1995
Hotchkiss School
10
Josh Morrisssey
D
6-0, 184
Left
March 28, 1995
Prince Albert

Rising

Shea Theodore (26): Has always been dominant at the offensive end and is showing a much-improved commitment level in his own zone.

Frederik Gauthier (34): Unknown to us before the season started, this Q newcomer is humongous and has legitimate offensive skills. Has been the biggest surprise anywhere so far.

Sean Malone (49): Wowed us in Buffalo with his world-class speed and moves that allowed him to walk down a couple of pretty fair defenders.

Ryan Fitzgerald (70): Not big or flashy, but very intelligent and creative and plays a well-rounded game. Has had no problem with the step up in competition level.

Jerret Smith (86): Where did this kid come from? Big, strong, physically mature blue-liner who has seemingly adjusted to the Western Hockey League pace in about a nano-second.

Falling

Robert Hagg (19): His poor footwork against the rush was exposed at the Ivan Hlinka tournament. Still a terrific offensive talent, but needs to work on significant flaws.

Jay Merkley (154): Former top bantam draft pick was expected to dominate, but relies solely on natural skill and has completely neglected hard work.

News and notes from around the scouting community

-September was "Showcase Season" across the United States. In successive weeks, the North American Hockey League, Eastern Junior Hockey League and United States Hockey League (the three top junior circuit in the USA) held their season-opening showcase events, and a few legitimate sleeper prospects emerged from the shadows as players to watch in the upcoming season.

First up was Evan Cowley, a 6-4, 185-pound netminder from Colorado who is playing for Wichita Falls in the NAHL. Just like Anthony Stolarz a year ago, Cowley used the NAHL's get-together in Blaine, MN, as a launching pad into the consciousness of the assembled scouting masses. Indeed, his performance in Minnesota was such an eye opener that it earned him a late invite to be one of the four netminders at the American Top Prospects Game. With his long, spidery frame and natural athleticism, Cowley could make a run up the draft boards similar to Stolarz.

Next up was the EJHL's showcase, and this time it was Ryan Fitzgerald's time to shine and earn an invite to Buffalo for the Top Prospects Game — where he proceeded to earn three assists and win 11 of 12 faceoffs en route to being named the game's MVP. Safe to say, he's firmly on the prospect map now.

Fitzgerald wasn't the only player who caught Red Line's attention at the EJHL's get-together. Power winger Zach Sanford of the league's newly minted Islanders franchise shows an intriguing combination of size, toughness, shot and puck skills. He might be raw, but if he can put it all together, there could be something special brewing.

-With play throughout Europe having started a full month ago, Red Line's European scouts weighed in with some notes this month based on early season results.

Our scout in Finland reports that Aleksander Barkov has been playing in all situations for Tappara's men's team, and is logging an impressive 18 minutes of ice time per game. Barkov's linemates are former NHL player Ville Nieminen and 18-year-old Henrik Haapala (a real Red Line favorite whose NHL potential is limited by his 5-9,148-pound frame). Barkov and Haapala have played together in Tappara juniors, so they know each other quite well.

Barkov has been scoring a lot of points, but his overall game has not been quite as impressive as the numbers might indicate. He's generally just been in the right place at the right time, and getting a bit lucky with rebounds, deflections, and bounces.

But hey, isn't that what naturally instinctive players do? Besides, it's not like we're expecting him to dominate in the SM-liiga barely a month past his 17th birthday.

-Another less heralded Finn is sniping winger Artturi Lehkonen, and he had a really strong preseason in the European Trophy series, where he was top scorer on his team with five goals and three assists in seven games. He's off to a great start in SM-liiga play as well, and has already received some first-line minutes while a few veteran forwards missed some games with minor injuries.

Lehkonen has always been a pure scorer and should be a staple on the Finnish U-18 club's top line and PP unit. His small frame (5-10, 163) and lack of physical play is the drawback that keeps him out of our top 50 for the moment.

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