Music: {allcanada} Patterson looks to continue streak

Coming into the spring training, Toronto Blue Jays fans thought the franchise had two speedsters who could do some damage from the top of the lineup: Scott Podsednik and Rajai Davis.

Viewers can watch the game live tonight on Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, and Pacific at 7 p.m. ET.

Podsednik dealt with a recurrence of an old foot injury, and even when he did return to health he struggled at the Triple-A level leading to his release.

Davis also dealt with some early injury woes, and even though he has returned to the lineup, he is batting at the bottom of the order thanks to his struggles to reach base consistently.

The one speedster that Blue Jays fans did not foresee was former failed Cubs prospect Corey Patterson.

Inked to a minor league contract, Patterson began the season on the disabled list. However, he has been remarkable since called upon, as he blasted a home run in his season debut on April 11. His most recent home runs were even more impressive.

Patterson hit the game-winning home run in the 14th inning on Saturday and then notched his fourth home run of the season on Sunday en route to a 13-4 win. In those two games combined, Patterson has nine hits, has scored six runs, and driven in four RBI.

With his batting average now at .301, nearly 50 points above his career average, Jays fans are pondering whether Patterson really is this good, or whether this is merely a hot start that is not sustainable.

The good news is that although Patterson is best known for his failure to live up to the hype with the Cubs, he has enjoyed some very productive seasons in the majors.

The third overall pick of the 1998 draft, Patterson has launched as many as 24 home runs in a season and swiped 30-plus bases on three different occasions. Last season, Patterson played 90 games for the Orioles and offered a solid eight home runs and 21 steals with a .269 average.

As solid as those numbers have been, they are not in the same ballpark with the production that Patterson has offered this season. Here's a look at his projections based on his current statistics:

Corey Patterson's 2011 Projections:

AB RUNS HR RBI SB AVG 528 81 12 72 21 .301

To determine whether this type of production is in fact sustainable, we have to identify the key differences from this year compared to previous seasons.

Batting Average Per Ball In Play (BABIP):

BABIP is the statistic that is often associated with luck. It tells us what the player's batting average is for balls that are put into play.

From 2007 to 2009, Patterson's BABIP had never soared above .300. Yet, over the last two seasons Patterson has maintained a BABIP north of .330. While there is certainly a chance that Patterson has enjoyed some luck, the fact is that we are now approaching 500 at bats during that span, so this may be the story of an improving hitter, even at 31 years old.

Hitting the Heaters:

If you're trying to narrow down exactly which pitches Patterson is smashing the most, the answer is heaters clocked at 92 MPH or faster.

Entering Sunday, Patterson was hitting .385 against these pitches with a .564 slugging percentage. In comparison, Patterson hit .311 with a .574 slugging percentage against those pitches in 2008.

The key difference is that just 16.7 per cent of the pitches thrown to him in 2008 were that fast. This season, 22.7 per cent of the pitches thrown to Patterson have been faster than 92 MPH.

It seems to be an upward trend of pitchers throwing the ball harder over the last two seasons, which is great news for Patterson, a dead fastball hitter.

Crushing Southpaws:

Finally, Patterson has played against both right-handers as well as southpaws this season because of his .313 average and .365 OBP against southpaws. Compare that to his career numbers, which consist of just a .239 average and .272 OBP against left-handers.

Is it fair to believe that Patterson is suddenly able to hit against southpaws? The answer is no, after all, he has just 48 at bats against lefties this season. In 82 at bats last season, Patterson hit just .207 with one home run.

So back to the question at hand, can we expect Corey Patterson to sustain the hot start throughout the entire season?

When looking at his BABIP, it does appear that like a fine wine Patterson is getting better with age. He also has the advantage of thriving against hard-throwers, which is something he deals with more often now compared to his earlier seasons.

The bad news is that he is bound to regress to his career average when it comes to dealing with southpaws.

So yes, Patterson is better than expected and should be able to offer decent production, but expect that average to drop closer to the .270 mark compared to .300 by the time November rolls around.