1. Trending down
The Winnipeg Jets improved from 212 goals in 2015-16 (tied with the Colorado Avalanche for 20th in the NHL) to 246 goals last season (seventh).
But the Jets are trending down in shot-based metrics. They had 2,429 shots on goal in 2015-16 (16th), a total that increased to 2,448 last season (21st). In terms of 5-on-5 shot attempts, Winnipeg fell from 18th in 2015-16 (3,543) to 27th last season (3,397).
The Jets' declining shot rankings are part of a steady downward trend in their shot-based metrics under coach Paul Maurice. In 2014-15, Maurice's first full season, Winnipeg ranked ninth with a 5-on-5 shot attempts differential (plus-344). They fell to 13th in 2015-16 (plus-191) and 21st last season (minus-101).
2. Double trouble
Scoring rates and relative shot attempt percentages often are used to evaluate forwards. From this perspective, the Jets have two of the best forwards in the NHL, Mark Scheifele and Blake Wheeler.
Over the past two seasons, Scheifele averaged 2.56 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, third in the League among those who played at least 1,000 minutes, behind Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers (2.86) and Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins (2.60), according to Xtra Hockey Stats.
Wheeler ranked 18th (2.19) but has the edge on Scheifele in terms of shot-based metrics. The Jets had 2,415 shot attempts compared to 1,975 for their opponents with Wheeler on the ice the past two seasons, for an SAT% of 55.01. Relative to their 48.1 SAT% without Wheeler on the ice, that's a difference of plus-6.9 percent, which ranked sixth in the League among those who played at least 50 games. Scheifele was plus-3.1.
3. New No. 1 goalie
The Jets hope a change of scenery will help goalie Steve Mason regain his form.
With the Columbus Blue Jackets from 2009-13, Mason had an even-strength save percentage of .911 each season, ranking near the bottom of the League.
Mason was traded to the Philadelphia Flyers on April 3, 2013, and in his first three full seasons in Philadelphia, his even-strength save percentage jumped to .931, tied for second among the 57 goalies to play at least 50 NHL games in that span. Last season, it dropped to .919, which was below the League average of .923. To be competitive, Winnipeg needs Mason to play more like the goalie he was 2013-16.
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