{allcanada} Five reasons the Calgary Flames won't be a one-year wonder

 

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Advanced statistic aficionados say the Colorado Avalanche's drop in the standings in 2014-15 was as predictable as warmth on a sunny day.

In 2013-14, the Avalanche's team Corsi rating, which is used to measure puck possession, ranked 25th out of 30 NHL teams, per war-on-ice.com. Colorado's shooting percentage and save percentage were both inordinately high, an event that doesn't happen all that often. That's a daily double that is difficult to sustain from one season to the next. Luck is tricky to quantify, but the advanced stats community seemed to believe the Avalanche had too much of it in 2013-14.

This summer the advanced stats folks have targeted the Calgary Flames as a team that might fall this season. The Flames, who finished the regular season with 97 points, ranked 28th in Corsi, and ended up advancing to the second round of the playoffs.

Here's why the Flames won't falter this season:

Defense rules: With the addition of Dougie Hamilton, the Flames have one of the NHL's most skilled defensive corps. Remember that No. 1 defenseman Mark Giordano played only 61 games last season because of injury. He was a leading Norris Trophy candidate before he went down. TJ Brodie and Giordano have formed a strong No. 1 pair. The defense makes the Flames. That was not true in Colorado last season.

Larger sample size: The Flames have truly been competitive for a season and a half. Since Jan. 1, 2014, the Flames are 66-50-8. They started to discover their rhythm in the middle of the 2013-14 season.

Flames stay out of penalty box: They only faced 186 penalty-kill opportunities, the lowest number of any team in the NHL last season. To appreciate how much that helped the Flames, consider that 18 other teams were shorthanded more than 250 times. In 2013-14, the Flames ranked third in the NHL in least number of times shorthanded. This is a trend they can sustain.

Pacific more forgiving: One of Colorado's issues this past season was that it was trying to repeat in a brutally-competitive Central Division. Obviously, the Pacific has quality teams, but it's not as top-to-bottom competitive as the Central. The Flames can hold their serve in this division.

Right ages, right consistency: At 31, Jiri Hudler is a consistent performer. Sean Monahan had no sophomore jinx, going from 22 goals and 34 points to 31 goals in 62 points. The Avalanche were heavily goalie dependent in 2013-14 because they didn't have the puck enough. Semyon Varlamov enjoyed a career season in Colorado's net and that carried the Avalanche. Calgary benefited from good goaltending, but the team save percentage was middle of the pack.

This summer, the Flames added Michael Frolik, who is known as a versatile, dependable forward, and Hamilton, an emerging force. Both are strong possession players. Johnny Gaudreau is entering his second NHL season and his production level may be difficult to project. But the Flames' roster seems to have more players whose performance levels are predictable. The Flames were sixth in the NHL in scoring this season.

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