The math is easy.
There are no confusing tie-breakers. No goal difference comparisons to make. No need to figure out how results in other games fit into the picture.
None of that.
All Canada has to do to qualify for the London Games is defeat Mexico in Saturday night's CONCACAF Men's Olympic qualifying semifinal match in Kansas City.
PROGRAMMING ALERT: Watch Canada play Mexico Saturday in the semifinals of CONCACAF Olympic qualifying on Sportsnet East, West, Ontario and Pacific. Coverage begins at 8:30 p.m. ET/ 5:30 p.m. PT with 30-minute SOCCER CENTRAL pre-show featuring Gerry Dobson and Craig Forrest teeing up the do-or-die match from Livestrong Sporting Park in Kansas City. Watch the live stream of the match on sportsnet.ca HERE
Win, and they're in. Lose, and Canada's Olympic drought, which dates back to 1984, continues for at least another four years.
Despite its shocking 2-0 upset win over the United States in the tournament group stage, Canada's under-23 side enters Saturday's winner-take-all affair with Mexico as the decided underdog.
The Canadians looked limp in settling for a 1-1 draw against lowly Cuba in their final round-robin match, while the Mexicans blanked Panama 1-0 to finish the group stage with a perfect three wins from three games, beating their opponents by combined score of 11-1.
Mexico also boasts no fewer than nine players who played for their country's senior side at last year's Copa America (South American championship) in Argentina.
The odds are clearly against Canada, but coach Tony Fonseca maintains a fearless attitude ahead of the match.
"We are very aware the huge mountain ahead of us but as far as I'm concerned it's a 50-50 chance. It's like playing the lottery: you're in it to win it," Fonseca told reporters on a conference call Friday.
"We know how important this is for the program, the players, for the country. We know our responsibilities and we're going to try our best."
It's that kind of mindset that Craig Forrest believes Canadian players need to have if they are to upset the heavily-favoured Mexicans.
"They should take the confidence they got from the (U.S.) game into the Mexican game," said Forrest, a former goalkeeper for Canada's national senior team.
"There's been lots of changes in the team and the lineup with three games in five days ... They've had lots of time to rest. Go into it with some confidence. Have a real go and leave it on the pitch."
Canada has received excellent play from Michal Misiewicz. The FC Edmonton goalkeeper has earned two shutouts in this competition, and he's made a handful of timely and crucial saves for Canada. More importantly, he's shown great poise and maturity.
"He wasn't even necessarily the No. 1 (goalkeeper) coming in, but he's certainly stamped his authority on that position. If he plays anywhere near what he's done in this tournament against Mexico, we'll be pretty impressed," Forrest said.
Canada's defence has only surrendered one goal thus far in the tournament. They should have their hands full Saturday with the Mexican striker tandem of Alan Pulido and Marco Fabian, who have combined for seven of their country's 11 goals.
Fonseca was tight-lipped about his starting line-up and how he plans to tactically approach this match, saying only that Mexico is a dangerous opponent.
"We are very aware of what Mexico can do," Fonseca conceded. "Obviously we're not going to mention any tactics about the game. We'll save that for ourselves."
How focused is Fonseca on Saturday's match? So focused that he doesn't want anybody to bring up how Canada battled Mexico to a 1-1 draw in qualifying for the 2008 Beijing Games.
That was then, and this is now, the Canadian coach bluntly stated.
"We don't focus too much on the past. The past belongs to the museums. It's about the present," he said.
El Salvador plays Honduras in Saturday's other semifinal. The two semifinal winners automatically qualify for the London Olympics. The CONCACAF tournament final is scheduled for Monday evening in Kansas City.
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