Music: {allcanada} Is Drake a Grammys shoo-in?

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

{allcanada} Is Drake a Grammys shoo-in?

The 53rd Grammy Awards air Feb. 13 (CBS, 8 p.m. ET/tape delay PT)

If voters handed ballots to their 10-year-old daughters, Justin Bieber would walk away with the Grammy Award for best new artist. Of this year's five nominees, the boy-pop sensation easily lays claim to the noisiest fans, heaviest Twitter traffic and fattest merchandise checks.

And that's why he won't win, says veteran Grammy prognosticator Paul Grein. Voters are leery of teen idols, who tend to burn brightly and flame out before they're old enough to vote.

The Recording Academy "doesn't want people on that winners roster where you say, 'Wow, he had two hot years and that was it,' " Grein says. "There's a greater danger of that with teen idols."

Instead, hip-hop star Drake is likely to be anointed, says Grein, who writes the Chart Watch blog for Yahoo.com. He handicaps the race for USA TODAY, ranking the contenders in order of their chances, and hedges his bets: "It's a strong year with no runaway winner. I wouldn't be shocked if any of the top four win."

•Drake. Drake and Bieber enjoyed enormous commercial success, and both are nominated for best album in their respective genres, rap and pop. Drake may have an edge: authenticity.

The rapper's collaborations with Kanye West, Lil Wayne and Eminem "made a big statement," Grein says. "The three hottest and most acclaimed people in rap gave him a big shot of credibility."

In addition to his rap credentials, "he has pop world accessibility. It's very rare and difficult to maintain both audiences."

•Florence + The Machine. Buzz around the eccentric British pop group was peaking during the nominating season, thanks to the ubiquity of single Dog Days Are Over, featured in the Nov. 30 episode of Fox's Glee, "which was helpful."

•Mumford & Sons. The English indie-folk band also had lucky timing with media exposure during the voting period. But with both U.K. acts so evenly matched, "it's hard to see one winning. They appeal to the same alternative-minded voters."

•Justin Bieber. Teen heartthrobs are often nominated but seldom win. "Bieber stands a little above other idols because he's worked with Ludacris and Usher," Grein says. "I'd be a little surprised if he won. ... He's hot as a pistol right now, but it's a difficult transition to successful adult artist. It's a very short list —Stevie Wonder, Justin Timberlake."

•Esperanza Spalding. No chance. The jazz bassist "was lucky to be nominated. That's her win."