Music: {allcanada} 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning 1st-round preview

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(2A) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. (3A) Tampa Bay Lightning

Maple Leafs: 50-21-11, 111 points

Lightning: 46-30-6, 98 points

Season series: TOR 2-0-1; TBL 1-2-0

Game 1: Tuesday at Toronto (7:30 p.m. ET; ESPN, CBC, SNE, SNO, SNP, TVAS)

The Tampa Bay Lightning will look to reach the Stanley Cup Final for a fourth consecutive season, a journey that begins with a matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Eastern Conference First Round.

From 2020-22 the Lightning won 11 consecutive postseason series and the Stanley Cup twice (2020, 2021) before seeing their run end by being defeated by the Colorado Avalanche in six games in the 2022 Final. Tampa Bay is attempting to become the first team to reach the Final in four straight seasons since the New York Islanders did it in five consecutive seasons from 1980-84.

"There are a lot of teams that are really strong and have a legitimate shot of winning the Stanley Cup," Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois said. "I like that we're one of them. That gives us a chance."

Their first obstacle is an opening-round series against the Maple Leafs, the team they eliminated in seven games to start the playoffs last season.

"You have no chance to win the Stanley Cup unless you make the playoffs," Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper said.

There's one box checked off. The next one is defeating a Maple Leafs team that has not won a postseason series since 2004.

In retrospect, much has changed for each team since two goals from Nick Paul helped the Lightning defeat the Maple Leafs 2-1 in Game 7 on May 14, 2022.

For the Lightning, forward Ondrej Palat (New Jersey Devils), and defensemen Jan Ruuta (Pittsburgh Penguins) and Ryan McDonagh (Nashville Predators) are gone. Ruuta and McDonagh were great fits for the physical gameplan Tampa Bay employed during the postseason, and the Lightning plan to stick to that blueprint with new players.

"It's not about fighting. It's about finishing checks, because when you finish checks, guys really don't want to go in the corner," defenseman Mikhail Sergachev said. "So it's just about that, and then obviously your skill can take over."

Lightning management was thinking along those lines when it acquired forward Tanner Jeannot from the Predators prior to the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline on March 3. The forward creates chaos for the opposition on the forecheck but will miss the beginning of the series after sustaining a lower-body injury against the New York Islanders on April 6.

As for the Maple Leafs, they feel better equipped to deal with the physicality of the postseason after acquiring forwards Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari and Sam Lafferty, as well as defensemen Jake McCabe and Luke Schenn in pre-deadline deals. Each plays a blue-collar style that should help in grinding out shifts, improving the cycle game, and initiating physical play, as much as absorbing it.

"There's no reason to beat around," Toronto GM Kyle Dubas said. "We've wanted to be more competitive."

While the Maple Leafs have added much-needed sandpaper, they also augmented their leadership both on and off the ice in O'Reilly, the former St. Louis Blues captain who helped them win a Stanley Cup in 2019. O'Reilly and defenseman Mark Giordano (Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken) have both captained NHL teams and can help current captain John Tavares.

There's no question Toronto has improved its depth. But ultimately the Maple Leafs will need more from its core: forwards Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, William Nylander and defenseman Morgan Rielly, who have been part of six consecutive one-and-done postseason eliminations with Toronto.

"You can only control what's ahead, not the past," Marner said. "Our focus is on that."

Toronto earned five of a possible six points against Tampa Bay this season, winning 4-1 on Dec. 20 and 4-3 on April 11. The only blemish was a 4-3 defeat in overtime on Dec. 3. Nylander led all scorers in those three games with three goals and six points; Marner, and Lightning forward Alex Killorn each had two goals.

Game breakers

Maple Leafs: Marner is the heartbeat of the Maple Leafs. The 25-year-old had 99 points (30 goals, 69 assists) and was looking to become only the fourth Toronto player ever to crack the 100-point barrier, joining Matthews (last season) and Hall of Famers Doug Gilmour (1992-93, 1993-94) and Darryl Sittler (1977-78). He had 36 power-play points and kills penalties as well (he scored four short-handed goals). However, for the Maple Leafs to be successful in this series, Marner will need to improve his postseason stats of 33 points (seven goals, 26 assists) in 39 games.

Lightning: Kucherov eclipsed the 100-point barrier for the third time in his career, scoring 113 points (30 goals, 83 assists). It's the postseason where the 29-year-old really shines. He is averaging 1.13 points per game in the Stanley Cup Playoffs during his career with 154 points (52 goals, 102 assists) in 136 games. Kucherov leads the postseason in scoring the past three seasons with 93 points (23 goals, 70 assists) in 71 games, almost 30 points more than Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche, who is second with 64 points (30 goals, 34 assists) in 45 games during that span.

Goaltending

Maple Leafs: After being given some time off late in the season to heal various bumps and bruises, Ilya Samsonov is expected to be the starter for Toronto. He's earned it. The 26-year-old was 27-10-5 with 2.33 goals-against average, .919 save percentage and four shutouts in 42 games (40 starts) for the Maple Leafs and beat out Matt Murray for the job. Of more concern is his previous postseason struggles; he's 1-6, those results coming in 2021 and 2022 while with the Washington Capitals. Joseph Woll, who played in seven games for Toronto this season (6-1-0, 2.16 GAA, .932 save percentage) could start the series as the backup if Murray remains sidelined.

Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy is the best in the business, especially in the postseason. He backstopped the Lightning to championships in 2020 and 2021 and won the Conn Smythe Trophy as the Stanley Cup Playoffs most valuable player in 2021. Most impressively, he's had a shutout in six of the Lightning's last seven series-clinching wins. Backup Brian Elliott was 12-8-2 with a 3.40 GAA, .891 save percentage and two shutouts in 22 games this season and has 48 games of postseason experience.

Numbers to know

Maple Leafs: 19-27-0. That is Toronto's postseason record since they last won a playoff series in 2004. They've lost all seven since then, many in heartbreaking fashion.

Lightning: Seven. That's the number of third-period goals Palat scored in the playoffs last year, underscoring his ability to be clutch. He was the fifth player since 1995 with at least seven third-period goals in a single postseason, and it's a void the Lightning will have to fill, whether it be from the likes of Kucherov, Steven Stamkos and/or Brayden Point.

X-factors

Maple Leafs: O'Reilly plays with the unique combination of passion, ferocity and leadership. He can play on each of the top three lines; can play center or wing, depending on the situation; can help ease some of the pressure off Tavares in the face-off circle; and brings the pedigree of a former Cup winner into the dressing room. He was exactly what this team lacked.

Lightning: Victor Hedman's 49 points (nine goals, 40 assists) was his second-lowest total in the past seven years, only besting the 45 he scored during the 56-game shortened season in 2020-21. But don't be misled. At 32-years-old, the veteran defenseman is well aware of when to conserve energy and when to step on the gas when it matters. And the postseason matters. His penchant of gobbling up minutes and dictating the flow and tempo of games makes him the most important player on the Lightning not named Vasilevskiy. Hedman won the Conn Smythe in 2020.

They said it

"Ups and downs, I would say this year. We've had stretches where we've played some really good hockey, and then we've had stretches where we haven't. If anything, I think the consistency has lacked this year. But anything can happen when you go into the playoffs, and we're looking forward to it." -- Lightning forward Brayden Point

"A lot of great memories with guys on that team. Having said that, they're competing for their team and their organization. I'm here to do that for my team. For me, I can flip the switch. Some of these guys will be longtime friends, life-long friends, and you have great bonds and memories when you win in any sport. But it's competitive out there, Everyone's got a goal. No problem flipping the switch, and obviously they're doing the same." -- Maple Leafs defenseman Luke Schenn, who helped Tampa Bay win the Stanley Cup in 2020 and 2021

Will win if …

Maple Leafs: They can overcome a pair of obstacles. First off, their skilled core needs to elevate when it matters most. Tavares, Marner, Nylander and Matthews were outscored by Paul in Game 7 last year. If they want to take the next step this time around, something like that can't happen. Second, they need to mentally get past the fact that this team hasn't won a series in 19 years. They have helped create that baggage; now they have to cast it off if they want to get past it.

Lightning: They can turn up the intensity to the level of their past three postseason runs. Look, there is a lot of mileage on a team that has made three consecutive appearances in the Stanley Cup Final. Regular-season inconsistency and fatigue is understandable. If Point, Stamkos, Kucherov, Hedman and Vasilevskiy can up their games to the next level, we all know the championship pedigree is here.