{allcanada} 10 NHL story lines molded by advanced stats for 2015-16

 

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When Detroit Red Wings forward Gustav Nyquist scored 28 goals in 57 games in 2013-14, it was natural to extrapolate a 30-goal season in his follow-up campaign. But that was not the case as the 25-year-old lit the lamp 27 times in his first full season.

A deeper look into the numbers would illustrate that Nyquist scored at an 18% rate in 2013 — and 19% at five-on-five. That season was an outlier. His shooting percentage regressed this past season to a more realistic level. Washington Capitals forward Alex Ovechkin has not surpassed any of those rates once in his career.

Which is to say, statistics can help uncover new layers of the game that might not be obvious to the casual fan.

Here are 10 story lines molded by advanced statistics to keep in mind for 2015-16:

Zuccarello could become an All-Star. It might not be apparent from his totals the past two seasons (19 goals, 59 points and 15 goals, 49 points), but Mats Zuccarello is a bona fide top-line player. His five-on-five production has been among the league's best the past two seasons (minimum 2,000 minutes), ranking 15th with 2.18 points per 60 minutes, ratios better than Jakub Voracek and Phil Kessel. Last season's dip in scoring can be attributed to less production on the power play. It's not foolish to think the New York Rangers could have reached a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final had Zuccarello been healthy.

Flames' regression won't be severe. Overachievers last season, the Calgary Flames sported a dreadful 44.5% Corsi rating, meaning they allowed the opposition to control the play 55.5% of the time. Puck possession is an important ingredient to winning games, and teams that struggle in that department often need luck on their side. It would be easy to predict major regression this season after they defied the odds and reached the second round of the playoffs, but they made significant additions — Dougie Hamilton and Michael Frolik — and their younger players should take steps forward. That means they won't necessarily crash and burn as the Colorado Avalanche did after their unsustainable 2013-14 season.

Canucks could be bad. It would seem that the Vancouver Canucks did everything they could this offseason to make their team worse and ensure they miss the playoffs. With a 49.9% Corsi rating and a lack of secondary scoring last season, the Canucks made head-scratching moves. Out are defenseman Kevin Bieksa and forwards Zack Kassian and Nick Bonino. In are forwards Brandon Prust and Brandon Sutter and defenseman Matt Bartkowski. Add a continued reliance on Ryan Miller, a goaltender past his prime, and the Canucks look like they're in better position for a lottery pick than a playoff berth.

Time for Muzzin to get Norris love. Los Angeles Kings defenseman Jake Muzzin, 26, might be one of the best in the game, but nobody talks him up that way, probably because he plays with Drew Doughty. Voters tend to reward defensemen for offensive production, and Muzzin's offensive game is growing. He set career highs with 10 goals and 41 points. Muzzin also boasted stellar possession numbers the past two seasons — topping 58% from 2013-15, even as his zone starts have become less favorable. He is an elite two-way defenseman whose role will expand.

Hurricanes a dark-horse playoff team. Undone by the league's worst PDO (97.1), the sum of a team's save percentage and shooting percentage at five-on-five, the Carolina Hurricanes finished 30-41-11 last season. PDO measures "puck luck," and typically teams will hover around a 100 PDO. The Hurricanes shot 6.2% and posted a .909 save percentage, both of which were the NHL's second-worst marks. With slightly better goaltending and more puck luck, the Hurricanes could battle for a playoff spot.

Mason a Vezina finalist? If the Philadelphia Flyers return to the playoffs, it will be in large part because of Steve Mason, who has emerged as a top-shelf goalie in his two-plus seasons in Philadelphia. Last year, Mason sported a .944 five-on-five save percentage, the best among goalies with at least 1,000 minutes. His adjusted save percentage (per War-on-Ice, a reflection of how a goalie fares based on the league-wide shooting percentage from certain areas of the ice) also was the league's best, .948. If standard goalie statistics are your preference, Mason's .928 save percentage ranked third, and his 2.25 goals-against average was seventh.

Predators need to ease off Weber. Shea Weber was once in the discussion for best defenseman in the game, but now he is a solid player whose reputation has superseded his fading on-ice impact the past few seasons. He was neither the Nashville Predators' top offensive defenseman nor one who tilted the ice the most. Nashville controlled the puck 4.1% less when Weber was on the ice last season. Advanced statistics show Weber struggled mightily on defense and would be better served against softer competition. Nashville has the depth to make this work.

The next great forward duo. Watch out Eastern Conference, Columbus Blue Jackets forwards Ryan Johansen and Brandon Saad are about to wreak havoc for at least the next half decade. Johansen has averaged 30 goals and 67 points the past two seasons, and he's 23. Saad, 22, averaged 21 goals and 50 points during that span, before getting dealt to the Blue Jackets. While Saad had the benefit of playing mainly with two possession monsters, Jonathan Toews and Marian Hossa, on the Chicago Blackhawks, he was a 54% possession player without them. Add in Saad's increased time at even strength as a first-liner in Columbus, and it wouldn't be surprising to see 70-point seasons from Saad and Johansen.

Babcock effect. Under Mike Babcock, the Red Wings were among the best defensive teams, ranking second with 48.6 Corsi against per 60 minutes and third in limiting scoring chances over the past five years. In that span, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been the worst, allowing the most Corsi events and scoring chances against. It remains to be seen how much of an effect Babcock will have on a rebuilding team, but it's also worth monitoring any style changes for the Red Wings with Jeff Blashill behind the bench.

Enough fuss about faceoffs. If there was a direct correlation between winning faceoffs and winning games, the best teams would win every game and the worst teams would lose every game, and teams would be filled with faceoff specialists. But that's not the case. The Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues, the two best teams in that regard, won more than 53% of their faceoffs last season; the Bruins missed the playoffs and the Blues lost in the first round again. If there are 65 faceoffs in a game, those two teams would win 34.45, while the Buffalo Sabres, the weakest team, would win 29.19. That's a difference of five faceoff wins. That's also saying all faceoff wins are created equal and doesn't factor in what is done after the draw. If faceoffs were deciding factors between good and bad teams, how did the Tampa Bay Lightning (49.7%, 16th) make it so far and how were the Hurricanes so bad with the third best (53%)?

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