Music: {allcanada} USA Today Playoff preview: Canadiens vs. Senators

Monday, April 29, 2013

{allcanada} USA Today Playoff preview: Canadiens vs. Senators

No. 2 Montreal Canadiens (29-14-5) vs. No. 7 Ottawa Senators (25-17-6)

Story line: Montreal exceeded expectations under first-year general manager Marc Bergevin, and Ottawa's Paul MacLean is a coach of the year candidate for keeping his team competitive despite key injuries.

Season series: Each team won two games, with one win coming in a shootout. Ottawa outscored Montreal 11-8. Ottawa won the first game 5-1, and then Montreal won 2-1. The Senators won a 2-1 shootout, and the Canadiens had a 4-3 shootout win.

Goalies: Montreal's Carey Price (21-13-4, 2.29, .905) vs. Ottawa's Craig Anderson (12-9-2, 1.69, .941). Price was solid early, but he faltered in the closing weeks, going 2-5 with an .851 save percentage. Anderson, meanwhile, was sharp all season. He gave up two or fewer goals in five of his last seven starts. He will need to outplay Price for the Senators to win.

Leading scorers: Montreal, LW Max Pacioretty (15-24—39); Ottawa, C Cory Conacher (11-17—28)

Who's hot: The Habs' passionate fan base has a playoff series to cheer about after missing the 2012 postseason. There's nothing like playoff hockey in Montreal.

Injuries: Montreal, D Alexei Emelin (knee ligament) out for the season; Emelin's injury has left a major hole in Montreal's defense that coach Michel Therrien has not been able to plug effectively. Ottawa, D Chris Phillips (lower body) day-to-day; C Jason Spezza (back). MacLean has said he's not close to returning.

Why the Canadiens should be favored

1. Montreal's wire-to-wire consistency has been very impressive. The Canadiens were equally strong on the road (15-7-2) as they were at home (14-7-3). The hockey world kept waiting for the Canadiens to fade, and they never did. Even at the end of the regular-season, the Habs held off Boston to win the division.

2. Therrien has Montreal players focused on the little aspects that decide winning or losing.

3. Montreal has a diversified scoring attack. P.K. Subban, a Norris Trophy candidate, and Andrei Markov trigger offense from the back end. But Montreal has plenty of forwards chipping in. Eight players had 10 or more goals, plus rookie Alex Galchenyuk had nine and Lars Eller had eight.

Why the Senators could win

This series is closer than it looks. The Canadiens haven't played as well as early in the season, and the Senators have the East's best goals-against average. They had to learn to keep the puck out of their net because they don't have a dynamic offense. Erik Karlsson's return changes Ottawa's lineup dramatically. His puck-moving ability means the Senators are one rush away from changing the complexion of a game.

Prediction: The Senators have reminded us that the injured underdog still has bark and bite. They won't exit the playoffs without a scrap. But take Montreal to win a six-game series on the strength of offensive advantage.