In their final game of group play in the London 2012 Olympic soccer tournament, the Canadian women will face off against 4th ranked Sweden looking to advance into the knockout stages.
The Outlook:
The first and second place teams in each group and two of the best third place teams will advance.
After winning three points on Saturday against South Africa, Canada now has an opportunity to finish as one of the top two teams in their group, ensuring a spot in the quarter-final round.
Assuming Japan defeats South Africa and secures the number one spot in the group, a pretty safe bet, a win against Sweden would see Canada into second place. With a loss or a draw, Canada would finish third and hope to qualify with one of the two berths available for third place teams.
Fortunately for Canada, win, lose or draw, it's highly likely that they would still qualify for the next round based on goal differential.
But Canada should still be desperate for a win against the Swedes.
Since all 12 teams in the tournament still have one group game left, it's impossible to know what the quarter-final match-ups will be. However, considering the potential crossover if Canada finishes third in Group F could be a do-or-die game versus the Americans, it's clearly in Canada's best interest to get the win in their third game.
Avoiding the number one team in the world in the quarter-finals is not the only reason Canada needs these three points. Whoever they face in game five, riding the wave of two back-to-back victories, could be just the confidence boost they need to overtake a higher ranked team. Squeaking through on points-differential on the other hand, doesn't exactly do wonders for a team's confidence.
That being said, Canada cannot afford to look past the task at hand.
The Opponent:
Sweden is a team with a very impressive resume. In the 2011 World Cup they pulled off a huge upset against the Americans in group-play, losing only to eventual world champion Japan in the semi-finals, the Swedes finished third overall with a win against France.
Always a contender in major international tournaments, the Swedish campaign at London 2012 has so far been a pretty convincing one. Sweden's 4-1 win against South Africa, could have been a complete blow out if it weren't for the efforts of goaltender Roxanne Barker.
Lotta Schelin in particular, is a player Canada will have their eye on to shut down. As Sweden's lone striker and their biggest threat offensively, they look to play everything through her.
Speed is her greatest asset, but she's also very intelligent and tactically aware. This combination makes keeping track of her a big challenge for any defender. She's dangerous with both feet, in aerial battles, and is especially slippery when breaking the backline and running onto through balls from the midfield or long balls from the backline
Keys for Canada:
Shut down Schelin
Much like how opponents zero in on Sinclair, Canada will focus on removing Schelin as an attacking threat. Cutting off the direct service from the fullbacks to Schelin will be crucial. The Canadian forwards will look to press high in Sweden's defensive third, especially on veteran defender Sara Thunebro, whose first option is always a direct ball to Schelin.
Defend Balls in the Box
While Schelin is the key to Sweden's attack. Canada will also have their hands full out wide. Sweden's flank play is very good. Their wide midfielders fly forward and provide dangerous service into the box. Canada will have to mark tight and win the 50/50 challenges in the air.
Mobility From Outside Backs.
Canada did an excellent job of getting their fullbacks involved offensively against South Africa. This will be important again for providing service for the strikers, but also to occupy Sweden's midfielder Sofia Jacoksson who was a handful for South Africa in game one. Japan was successful in nullifying the threat of Jakobsson by forcing her to stay home and defend Japan's attacking fullback, Aya Sameshima. Canada needs to do the same.
Notes:
Robin Gayle and Emily Zurrer have been taken off the Canadian roster and replaced by defenders Melanie Booth and Marie-Eve Nault. In Tuesday's match Lauren Sessleman, a natural lefty, will slide in as left centre back to cover for Candace Chapman. Chapman is still rehabbing an injury suffered in game one versus Japan, but medical staff is positive about her eventual return to the line-up.
An injury to Sweden's captain Nilla Fisher forced Caroline Seger to fill her role as a defensive Midfielder against Japan. This was a blow to the Swedish attack as Seger, a key link to Sweden's front line, was unable to contribute going forward. Whether or not Fisher is healthy for game three will be a major concern for Sweden.
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