The Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning have done themselves a world of good by winning the first two games of their conference semifinal series. The Philadelphia Flyers and the Vancouver Canucks, meanwhile, could be swimming against the tide of history.
That's because the games-played count has been pretty important for Stanley Cup winners, and each of the four aforementioned teams were taken the seven-game limit in the opening round.
A look at the paths of Stanley Cup-winning teams since 1987, when the NHL went to a best-of-seven format in the opening round, is intriguing:
The first round this year was heralded for its excitement, including four series that went seven games, which tied the record.
But there has never been a Stanley Cup team since the playoff format moved to a total of four best-of-seven rounds that has been pushed to the limit in each of the first two rounds.
In fact, just one franchise has lost as many as five games over the first half of its championship run — Pittsburgh in 1992 and 2009.
Just four of 22 eventual winners went the distance in the opening round, and none since those 1992 Penguins, the last of a four-year run in which the eventual champion barely survived the first round.
And 17 of the 23 winners required 12 games or less to get to the halfway point of the tournament (i.e. four losses or less).
Another reason the Red Wings, Capitals and Flyers should be concerned? Traditionally, this current round is the one where teams can be quickly buried if they don't start well. There have been seven sweeps — more than any other round — and 15 of 23 second-round series have gone five or less. No other round has featured as many such exits.
Only five champions overall did not have a sweep somewhere along the line. And each of those had at least one five-game series under their belts.
All of this is flat numbers on a page. The games must be played, styles can determine outcomes, and so can injuries. The chart doesn't get into the relative strength, or health, of the opponents along the way.
But it's been clear health and rest have been key to winning. Since the lockout, few of the champions endured major absences in the post-season. Usually, between 10 and 12 members of a Stanley Cup roster play in each and every game (Pittsburgh in 2009 had 15). The last significant absence of what could be deemed an integral player was Erik Cole for Carolina in 2006. The likes of Detroit forward Johan Franzen and Chicago players Andrew Ladd and Brian Campbell missed a handful of few games, but eventually returned.
With the apparent state of parity brought about by a few factors, most notably the salary cap, we will one day see a team go 8-6 in the first two rounds and win the Cup. Maybe even this spring.
At the other extreme, you can never say never, but it will be pretty difficult for a team to duplicate the ridiculous 16-2 Stanley Cup campaign of Edmonton in 1988.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has a shot at becoming the first fifth seed to win the Cup after a full season of play.
New Jersey was fifth en route to their win in 1995, but in a 48-game season due to a lockout.
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